La Liga, round 13 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Getafe — Atlético Madrid
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Atlético Madrid are clear favourites: 57% against 17% for the opponent, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Madrid are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Atlético Madrid are 127 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Getafe — No. 13, 12 pts; Atlético Madrid — No. 2, 28 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Getafe 1 win, Atlético Madrid 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Getafe — Atlético Madrid What is xG? | 0.8–1.5 | |
| Getafe not to lose | 43% | |
| Atlético Madrid not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Getafe
- Getafe goals
- Atlético Madrid goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Getafe | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| xG per match | 1.05 | 1.69 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.21 | 1.01 |
| Shots | 13.5 | 15.9 |
| On target | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Cards | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 42 | 57 |
Form
- 01.11Sevilla3:1
- 29.10away · UB Lebrijana3:2
- 25.10away · Athletic Club0:4
- 22.10Lugano2:5
- 19.10Rayo Vallecano1:1
- 03.11Bayern München0:2
- 31.10away · Levante2:0
- 24.10Deportivo A Coruña1:0
- 20.10away · VfB Stuttgart1:1
- 17.10away · Espanyol1:0
Head to head
- 14.03.2026Atlético Madrid — Getafe1:0
- 23.11.2025Getafe — Atlético Madrid0:1
- 09.03.2025Getafe — Atlético Madrid2:1
- 04.02.2025Atlético Madrid — Getafe5:0
- 15.12.2024Atlético Madrid — Getafe1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Barcelona | 11 | 10 | +34 | 30 |
| 2, Champions League | Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9 | +14 | 28 |
| 3, Champions League | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | +18 | 27 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | -8 | 12 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
La Liga on the same day
- BarcelonaVillarrealpreliminary811361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:23.8
- Racing SantanderReal Sociedadpreliminary2827462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- OsasunaMálagapreliminary5327201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →