Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 10 · Monday, 2 November, MSK
Benfica — Alverca
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 2 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Benfica are clear favourites: 79% against 7% for the opponent, draw 14%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Benfica are about 1.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Benfica — Alverca What is xG? | 2.5–0.8 | |
| Benfica not to lose | 93% | |
| Alverca not to lose | 21% | |
| No draw | 86% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Benfica
- Benfica goals
- Alverca goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Vitória de Guimarães2:0
- 20.09away · FC Porto1:3
- 16.09away · Milan2:0
- 13.09Gil Vicente3:1
- 09.09away · Moreirense4:0
- 12.10away · Famalicão4:1
- 19.09Rio Ave1:0
- 12.09away · Nacional3:1
- 05.09Braga1:2
- 29.08Santa Clara1:1
Head to head
- 08.02.2026Benfica — Alverca2:1
- 31.08.2025Alverca — Benfica1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | +16 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Benfica | 8 | 6 | +17 | 19 |
| 3, Champions League qualifying | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
| 6 | Académico Viseu | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- Gil VicenteVitória de Guimarãespreliminary4231271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 79% will not happen in roughly 21 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →