Turkish Super Lig, round 7 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Tüpraş Stadyumu
Beşiktaş — Kocaelispor
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2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Beşiktaş to win (71%), came true.
Beşiktaş are clear favourites: 71% against 10% for the opponent, draw 20%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Beşiktaş are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Beşiktaş — Kocaelispor What is xG? | 1.8–0.6 | |
| Beşiktaş not to lose | 90% | |
| Kocaelispor not to lose | 29% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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- Handicap Beşiktaş
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- Kocaelispor goals
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Form
- 20.09away · Amed Sportif2:3
- 17.09Marseille4:1
- 11.09Erzurumspor FK3:0
- 05.09away · Fenerbahçe2:1
- 31.08Çorum FK6:2
- 19.09Gaziantep FK2:0
- 13.09away · Galatasaray0:1
- 06.09Samsunspor1:0
- 29.08away · Konyaspor2:1
- 24.08Amed Sportif2:0
Head to head
- 28.02.2026Kocaelispor — Beşiktaş0:1
- 05.02.2026Kocaelispor — Beşiktaş1:1
- 29.09.2025Beşiktaş — Kocaelispor3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | +5 | 16 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Amed Sportif | 7 | 4 | +8 | 14 |
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | +2 | 12 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
Next matches
- HoffenheimBeşiktaş15 October · Europa League3827361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- KocaelisporGöztepe18 October · Super Lig343134XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
Super Lig on the same day
- 4128311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
- 4227311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 71% will not happen in roughly 29 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →