Turkish Cup, round 3 · Thursday, 29 October, (UTC+3) · Yeni Bitlis Eren Stadyumu
Bitlis 1916 — Kayserispor
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In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Kayserispor to win (65%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 65% fails in about 35 matches out of 100 on average.
Kayserispor are clear favourites: 65% against 14% for the opponent, draw 21%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kayserispor are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Kayserispor are 227 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bitlis 1916 — Kayserispor What is xG? | 0.9–2.1 | |
| Bitlis 1916 not to lose | 35% | |
| Kayserispor not to lose | 86% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Bitlis 1916
- Bitlis 1916 goals
- Kayserispor goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 30′Ali Akkus · Bitlis 19161:0
- 45′Muhammet Arslantaş · Bitlis 19162:0
- 53′Halil Yilmaz · Bitlis 19163:0
- 63′Mert Denizli · own goal · Kayserispor3:1
- 80′Enes Islam Ilkin · Bitlis 19164:1
Form
No past matches in the data yet.
- 17.05Konyaspor2:1
- 09.05away · Alanyaspor1:3
- 03.05Eyüpspor1:1
- 25.04Rizespor2:0
- 20.04away · Gaziantep FK0:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Turkish Cup on the same day
- 741791The most likely outcome came true: 15:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.2
- 781571The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.4
- 3126432The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →