Turkish Cup, round 3 · Thursday, 29 October, (UTC+3) · Eryaman Stadyumu
Gençlerbirliği — Karaköprü Belediyespor
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5:0Came true
In short
Final score 5:0: the model's most likely outcome, Gençlerbirliği to win (74%), came true.
Gençlerbirliği are clear favourites: 74% against 9% for the opponent, draw 17%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Gençlerbirliği are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Gençlerbirliği are 421 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Gençlerbirliği: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Gençlerbirliği — Karaköprü Belediyespor What is xG? | 2.5–0.8 | |
| Gençlerbirliği not to lose | 91% | |
| Karaköprü Belediyespor not to lose | 26% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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Match events
- 1′Pedro Mendes · Gençlerbirliği1:0
- 13′Muhammed Emin Yavaş · own goal · Gençlerbirliği2:0
- 30′Cheikh Niasse · Gençlerbirliği3:0
- 84′Ayaz Özcan · Gençlerbirliği4:0
- 92′Victor Orakpo · Gençlerbirliği5:0
Form
- 25.10away · Konyaspor0:2
- 17.10Galatasaray0:1
- 10.10Amed Sportif2:2
- 19.09away · Başakşehir0:4
- 13.09Kasımpaşa1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Next match
- GençlerbirliğiAlanyaspor2 November · Super Lig3730321The most likely outcome came true: 15:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
Turkish Cup on the same day
- 1421652The most likely outcome did not happen: 24:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 0:2.3.0
- 781571The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.4
- 3126432The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →