Turkish Cup, round 3 · Thursday, 29 October, (UTC+3) · Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
Kasımpaşa — Çorluspor 1947
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Kasımpaşa to win (78%), came true.
Kasımpaşa are clear favourites: 78% against 7% for the opponent, draw 15%.
3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kasımpaşa are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Kasımpaşa are 462 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kasımpaşa — Çorluspor 1947 What is xG? | 2.6–0.7 | |
| Kasımpaşa not to lose | 93% | |
| Çorluspor 1947 not to lose | 22% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kasımpaşa
- Kasımpaşa goals
- Çorluspor 1947 goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Match events
- 45′Thiemoko Diarra · Kasımpaşa1:0
- 56′Yusuf Kaplan · Çorluspor 19471:1
- 60′Sercan Deniz · Kasımpaşa2:1
- 82′Ali Kol · Kasımpaşa3:1
Form
- 24.10away · Eyüpspor1:0
- 18.10Samsunspor4:1
- 09.10away · Galatasaray1:3
- 18.09Konyaspor0:0
- 13.09away · Gençlerbirliği2:1
- 29.10away · Pendikspor2:3
- 18.12Kocaelispor2:3
- 04.12Manisa Futbol Kulübü4:2
- 29.10away · Adanaspor2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Next match
- KasımpaşaBeşiktaş1 November · Super Lig2128502The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
Turkish Cup on the same day
- 1421652The most likely outcome did not happen: 24:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 0:2.3.0
- 741791The most likely outcome came true: 15:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.2
- 3126432The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →