UEFA Champions League, round 4 · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)
Borussia Dortmund — Real Betis
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 4 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites: 63% against 16% for the opponent, draw 21%.
The model expects few goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- Borussia Dortmund's starting XI is worth €315m, Real Betis's €124m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings Borussia Dortmund are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Borussia Dortmund — No. 18, 3 pts; Real Betis — No. 8, 6 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Real Betis: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund — Real Betis What is xG? | 2.1–1.0 | |
| Borussia Dortmund not to lose | 84% | |
| Real Betis not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund goals
- Real Betis goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 14.10away · Bodø/Glimt0:1
- 09.10Werder Bremen2:2
- 19.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:0
- 12.09Paderborn3:0
- 08.09Villarreal3:2
- 14.10FC Porto3:2
- 11.10Osasuna5:2
- 20.09away · Deportivo A Coruña1:1
- 17.09Getafe1:0
- 14.09away · Villarreal2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | Real Betis | 2 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Madrid | 2 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Manchester City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lens | 2 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- FenerbahçeLiverpoolpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- AEK AthensReal Madridpreliminary1923592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- FC PortoNapolipreliminary5224231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- PSV EindhovenClub Bruggepreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- RB LeipzigManchester Citypreliminary2425512The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- Slavia PragueArsenalpreliminary916752The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.3
- LensComopreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- VikingSabah FKpreliminary7018121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →