Bundesliga, round 5 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · SIGNAL IDUNA PARK
Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen
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In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Borussia Dortmund to win (73%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 73% fails in about 27 matches out of 100 on average.
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites: 73% against 9% for the opponent, draw 18%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Borussia Dortmund are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen What is xG? | 2.4–0.9 | |
| Borussia Dortmund not to lose | 91% | |
| Werder Bremen not to lose | 27% | |
| No draw | 82% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund goals
- Werder Bremen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:0
- 12.09Paderborn3:0
- 08.09Villarreal3:2
- 05.09away · Hoffenheim3:2
- 01.09away · HEBC Hamburg5:0
- 19.09Augsburg3:2
- 12.09away · 1. FC Köln1:1
- 05.09RB Leipzig3:1
- 30.08away · Freiburg1:4
- 22.08away · FC Hansa Lüneburg3:0
Head to head
- 16.05.2026Werder Bremen — Borussia Dortmund0:2
- 13.01.2026Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen3:0
- 25.01.2025Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen2:2
- 31.08.2024Werder Bremen — Borussia Dortmund0:0
- 09.03.2024Werder Bremen — Borussia Dortmund1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3, Champions League | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | +12 | 11 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
Next matches
- Bodø/GlimtBorussia Dortmund14 October · Champions League5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Werder BremenPaderborn17 October · Bundesliga4929221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 73% will not happen in roughly 27 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →