Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 2 · Monday, 19 October, MSK
Braga — Gil Vicente
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 19 October
In short
Braga are clear favourites: 52% against 20% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Braga are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Braga — Gil Vicente What is xG? | 1.5–0.9 | |
| Braga not to lose | 80% | |
| Gil Vicente not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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- Gil Vicente goals
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Form
- 09.10Sporting CP1:3
- 20.09away · Santa Clara0:0
- 14.09Estoril1:0
- 10.09away · Estrela da Amadora1:2
- 05.09away · Alverca2:1
- 09.10away · Moreirense1:0
- 19.09Marítimo1:1
- 13.09away · Benfica1:3
- 06.09Académico Viseu0:1
- 30.08away · Famalicão0:0
Head to head
- 14.02.2026Gil Vicente — Braga2:1
- 14.09.2025Braga — Gil Vicente0:1
- 09.02.2025Braga — Gil Vicente2:0
- 01.09.2024Gil Vicente — Braga0:0
- 16.03.2024Braga — Gil Vicente2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela da Amadora | 8 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →