Ligue 1, round 8 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Brest — Nice
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Brest are slightly stronger: 46% against 28%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Brest are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Brest — Nice What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Brest not to lose | 72% | |
| Nice not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Brest
- Brest goals
- Nice goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Angers5:1
- 20.09away · Auxerre1:2
- 13.09Paris Saint-Germain0:1
- 05.09away · Le Havre2:1
- 29.08Toulouse2:2
Head to head
- 01.02.2026Nice — Brest2:2
- 20.09.2025Brest — Nice4:1
- 17.05.2025Nice — Brest6:0
- 02.11.2024Brest — Nice0:1
- 04.02.2024Brest — Nice0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 3 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →