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Primera Nacional, round 35 · Monday, 26 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Juan Pasquale

CA Defensores de Belgrano — CA San Miguel

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Model prediction and result

0:0Missed
CA Defensores de Belgrano51%
Draw30%
CA San Miguel19%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, CA Defensores de Belgrano to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.

CA Defensores de Belgrano are clear favourites: 51% against 19% for the opponent, draw 30%.

2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 40%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings CA Defensores de Belgrano are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • CA Defensores de Belgrano are 132 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • CA Defensores de Belgrano: winless in 4; CA San Miguel: winless in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: CA Defensores de Belgrano — CA San Miguel What is xG?1.3–0.7
CA Defensores de Belgrano not to lose81%
CA San Miguel not to lose49%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes40%
Both teams to score: no60%
Total over 2.537%
Total under 2.563%

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  • CA San Miguel goals
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Match events

  1. 22′Leandro Desábato · CA San Miguel
  2. 27′Ezequiel Aguirre · CA Defensores de Belgrano
  3. 34′Kevin Ceceri · CA San Miguel
  4. 43′Lucas Delgado · CA San Miguel
  5. 56′Leonel Gigli · CA Defensores de Belgrano
  6. 83′Luis Jerez Silva · CA Defensores de Belgrano
Substitutions (2)
  1. 45′Francisco Tcherkaski ↔ Ezequiel Aguirre · CA Defensores de Belgrano
  2. 59′Agustín Benítez ↔ Nicolás Borsotti · CA Defensores de Belgrano

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

CA Defensores de Belgrano

  1. GKAlejandro Medina
  2. DFLeonel Gigli
  3. DFBrian Gómez
  4. DFMartín Rodríguez
  5. MFLeonardo Landriel
  6. MFPatricio Moyano
  7. MFNicolás Borsotti59′
  8. MFJuan De Tomasso
  9. MFLuis Jerez Silva
  10. FWEzequiel Aguirre45′
  11. FWEnzo González
Came on (2)
  1. MFAgustín Benítez31′
  2. FWFrancisco Tcherkaski45′

CA San Miguel

  1. GKMateo Reynoso Reynoso
  2. DFDamián Adín
  3. DFFacundo Cardozo
  4. DFAlexis Cruz
  5. DFKevin Ceceri
  6. MFMateo Serra
  7. MFIván Ramírez
  8. MFLeandro Desábato
  9. MFTomás Díaz
  10. MFJorge Ferrero
  11. FWLucas Delgado

Form

CA Defensores de Belgrano

  • 19.10away · San Telmo0:0
  • 11.10Acassuso0:3
  • 04.10away · CA Chaco For Ever2:2
  • 27.09Ferro Carril Oeste0:1
  • 20.09away · Central Norte1:0

CA San Miguel

  • 17.10Ciudad de Bolívar1:2
  • 11.10away · Almirante Brown1:1
  • 03.10Club Atlético Mitre0:2
  • 26.09away · Club Atlético Estudiantes1:2
  • 19.09All Boys1:1

Head to head

  • 06.06.2026CA San Miguel — CA Defensores de Belgrano0:0

Next matches

  • CA San MiguelDeportivo Madryn31 October · Primera Nacional
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.3
  • ColónCA Defensores de Belgrano1 November · Primera Nacional
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.1

Primera Nacional on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →