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Primera Nacional, round 35 · Monday, 26 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio República de Mataderos

Nueva Chicago — San Martín San Juan

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Model prediction and result

1:1Came true
Nueva Chicago36%
Draw33%
San Martín San Juan31%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (33%), came true.

Evenly matched: Nueva Chicago 36%, San Martín San Juan 31%, draw 33%.

2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 43%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings San Martín San Juan are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • Nueva Chicago: 3 defeats in a row; San Martín San Juan: winless in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Nueva Chicago 1 win, San Martín San Juan 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Nueva Chicago — San Martín San Juan What is xG?1.0–0.9
Nueva Chicago not to lose69%
San Martín San Juan not to lose64%
No draw67%
Both teams to score: yes43%
Both teams to score: no57%
Total over 2.536%
Total under 2.564%

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  • Handicap Nueva Chicago
  • Nueva Chicago goals
  • San Martín San Juan goals
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Match events

  1. 47′Nazareno Fúnez · San Martín San Juan0:1
  2. 63′Mauro Pérez · Nueva Chicago1:1
  3. 69′Nicolás Iachetti · San Martín San Juan
  4. 74′Leonardo Monje · San Martín San Juan
Substitutions (1)
  1. 46′Facundo Masuero ↔ Luciano Jachfe · Nueva Chicago

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Nueva Chicago

  1. GKLuciano Jachfe46′
  2. DFGonzalo Trindade
  3. DFBruno Palazzo
  4. DFDylan Gissi
  5. DFRomán Zalazar
  6. DFDiego Barros
  7. MFEnzo Roldán
  8. MFTomás Rodríguez
  9. FWLucas Ambrogio
  10. FWMauro Pérez
  11. FWThiago Ocampo
Came on (1)
  1. GKFacundo Masuero44′

San Martín San Juan

  1. GKSebastián Díaz
  2. DFManuel Cocca
  3. DFMauro Osores
  4. DFHernán Zuliani
  5. DFFacundo Nadalín
  6. MFSebastián Jaurena
  7. MFLeonardo Monje
  8. MFDiego Mercado
  9. FWNazareno Fúnez
  10. FWGenaro Rossi
  11. FWFranco Coronel

Form

Nueva Chicago

  • 18.10Gimnasia Jujuy0:1
  • 11.10away · Temperley1:2
  • 05.10Deportivo Maipú0:1
  • 27.09away · Almagro1:0
  • 22.09Patronato de Parana1:1

San Martín San Juan

  • 19.10Temperley1:1
  • 11.10away · Deportivo Maipú1:1
  • 04.10Almagro1:2
  • 27.09away · Patronato de Parana0:3
  • 20.09Colegiales2:0

Head to head

  • 26.08.2026San Martín San Juan — Nueva Chicago1:0
  • 02.12.2024San Martín San Juan — Nueva Chicago1:0
  • 24.11.2024Nueva Chicago — San Martín San Juan2:1
  • 16.08.2023Nueva Chicago — San Martín San Juan0:0
  • 06.04.2023San Martín San Juan — Nueva Chicago0:0

Full record: 6 meetings →

Next matches

Primera Nacional on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →