Primera Nacional, round 36 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Malvinas Argentinas
CA San Miguel — Deportivo Madryn
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Deportivo Madryn to win (40%), came true.
Deportivo Madryn are slightly stronger: 40% against 29%, draw 31%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Deportivo Madryn are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Deportivo Madryn are 142 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- CA San Miguel: winless in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: CA San Miguel 0 wins, Deportivo Madryn 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: CA San Miguel — Deportivo Madryn What is xG? | 1.0–1.3 | |
| CA San Miguel not to lose | 60% | |
| Deportivo Madryn not to lose | 71% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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Match events
- 17′Sergio Riquelme · CA San Miguel
- 23′Fabricio Almeida · CA San Miguel
- 24′Nicolás Servetto · missed penalty · Deportivo Madryn
- 31′Julián Cosi · Deportivo Madryn
- 47′Alexis Cruz · CA San Miguel
- 54′Fernando Bersano · Deportivo Madryn0:1
- 84′Mateo Serra · CA San Miguel
- 92′Máximo Osés · CA San Miguel
Substitutions (10)
- 38′Nahuel Liniers ↔ Santino Bevilacqua · CA San Miguel
- 46′Mateo Serra ↔ Thomas Carosio · CA San Miguel
- 46′Máximo Osés ↔ Sergio Riquelme · CA San Miguel
- 61′Estanislao Jara ↔ Juan Peinipil · Deportivo Madryn
- 61′Leonardo Marinucci ↔ Fernando Bersano · Deportivo Madryn
- 61′Adriano Martinez ↔ Julián Cosi · Deportivo Madryn
- 67′Faustino Gerbaldo ↔ Nicolas Coronel · CA San Miguel
- 71′Thiago González ↔ Nicolás Ortíz · Deportivo Madryn
- 71′Alejandro Gutiérrez ↔ Ezequiel Montagna · Deportivo Madryn
- 74′Lautaro Urquiza ↔ Alexis Cruz · CA San Miguel
Lineups
CA San Miguel
- GKMateo Reynoso Reynoso
- DFAlexis Cruz74′
- DFLeandro Ortiz
- DFAgustín Desimone
- MFFabricio Almeida
- MFElian de la Cruz
- MFThomas Carosio46′
- MFSergio Riquelme46′
- FWTomás Jérez
- FWSantino Bevilacqua38′
- FWNicolas Coronel67′
Came on (5)
- FWMáximo Osés44′
- MFMateo Serra44′
- MFNahuel Liniers52′
- FWFaustino Gerbaldo23′
- DFLautaro Urquiza16′
Deportivo Madryn
- GKYair Bonnín
- DFFacundo Giacopuzzi
- DFNicolás Ortíz71′
- DFJulián Cosi61′
- DFDiego Martínez
- DFAgustín Sosa
- MFFernando Bersano61′
- MFEzequiel Montagna71′
- MFMarcelo Meli
- FWNicolás Servetto
- FWJuan Peinipil61′
Came on (5)
- FWEstanislao Jara29′
- MFLeonardo Marinucci29′
- DFAlejandro Gutiérrez19′
- FWAdriano Martinez29′
- FWThiago González19′
Form
- 26.10away · CA Defensores de Belgrano0:0
- 17.10Ciudad de Bolívar1:2
- 11.10away · Almirante Brown1:1
- 03.10Club Atlético Mitre0:2
- 26.09away · Club Atlético Estudiantes1:2
- 25.10San Telmo4:1
- 17.10away · Acassuso0:0
- 11.10CA Chaco For Ever1:2
- 03.10away · Ferro Carril Oeste2:0
- 27.09Central Norte0:0
Head to head
- 14.06.2026Deportivo Madryn — CA San Miguel2:2
- 05.07.2025CA San Miguel — Deportivo Madryn1:1
- 02.03.2025Deportivo Madryn — CA San Miguel2:1
- 03.11.2024Deportivo Madryn — CA San Miguel0:0
Next match
- Deportivo MadrynDeportivo Maipú15 November · Primera Nacional · preliminary5925161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 363331XThe most likely outcome came true: X0:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:1.2.0
- 5726171The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 2229492The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 6025151The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:0.2.5
- 5626181The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 4531231The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
- 5728141The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →