Serie A, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Cagliari — Frosinone
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Frosinone are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- In recent matches the betting market rated Frosinone higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Cagliari — No. 12, 13 pts; Frosinone — No. 6, 20 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Cagliari: 4 defeats in a row; Frosinone: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Cagliari 2 wins, Frosinone 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cagliari — Frosinone What is xG? | 1.5–1.7 | |
| Cagliari not to lose | 58% | |
| Frosinone not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Cagliari | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.16 | 1.90 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.86 | 2.02 |
| Shots | 10.6 | 19.6 |
| On target | 3.9 | 7.1 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 6.6 |
| Cards | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Possession, % | 42 | 47 |
Form
Head to head
- 23.09.2025Cagliari — Frosinone4:1
- 21.01.2024Frosinone — Cagliari3:1
- 29.10.2023Cagliari — Frosinone4:3
- 15.04.2023Cagliari — Frosinone0:0
- 27.11.2022Frosinone — Cagliari2:2
Table
Serie A on the same day
- 5029211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 2130492The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
- 6821101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →