Serie A, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Roma — Sassuolo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Roma are clear favourites: 68% against 10% for the opponent, draw 21%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Roma are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
- Roma are 392 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Roma — No. 3, 24 pts; Sassuolo — No. 17, 8 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
- Sassuolo: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Roma 4 wins, Sassuolo 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Roma — Sassuolo What is xG? | 2.2–0.9 | |
| Roma not to lose | 90% | |
| Sassuolo not to lose | 32% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Roma | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| xG per match | 2.03 | 1.22 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.68 | 1.87 |
| Shots | 16.1 | 11.8 |
| On target | 5.8 | 4.3 |
| Corners | 5.5 | 4.3 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Possession, % | 55 | 48 |
Form
- 03.11away · Manchester United2:3
- 31.10away · Udinese5:2
- 27.10Cagliari4:2
- 24.10away · Napoli3:3
- 20.10Slovan Bratislava4:0
Head to head
- 10.01.2026Roma — Sassuolo2:0
- 26.10.2025Sassuolo — Roma0:1
- 17.03.2024Roma — Sassuolo1:0
- 03.12.2023Sassuolo — Roma1:2
- 12.03.2023Roma — Sassuolo3:4
Table
Serie A on the same day
- 3027422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 5029211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 2130492The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →