Serie A, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

Torino — Lecce

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Model prediction for 7 November

Torino50%

Draw29%

Lecce21%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Torino are clear favourites: 50% against 21% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

By the strength ratings Torino are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Torino are 156 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Torino — No. 10, 13 pts; Lecce — No. 14, 9 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
Lecce: 3 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Torino 2 wins, Lecce 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Torino — Lecce What is xG?		1.5–1.0
Torino not to lose		79%
Lecce not to lose		50%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		53%
Both teams to score: no		47%
Total over 2.5		48%
Total under 2.5		52%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Torino
Torino goals
Lecce goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Torino	Lecce
Goals scored per match	1.3	1.1
Goals conceded per match	1.5	2.1
xG per match	1.17	1.32
Opponents’ xG	1.51	1.91
Shots	11.6	12.7
On target	3.6	5.0
Corners	4.4	4.5
Cards	1.2	2.0
Possession, %	50	42

Averages per match: Torino — the last 10, Lecce — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Torino

01.11away · Frosinone0:2
27.10Como1:3
23.10Monza3:2
19.10away · Parma3:0
12.10Udinese2:1

Lecce

01.11Genoa1:2
29.10away · Frosinone1:5
25.10Juventus0:2
18.10away · Udinese3:0
11.10Bologna1:2

Head to head

01.02.2026Torino — Lecce1:0
30.11.2025Lecce — Torino2:1
18.05.2025Lecce — Torino1:0
15.09.2024Torino — Lecce0:0
16.02.2024Torino — Lecce2:0

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9	Bologna	10	4	2	4	14–13	+1	14
10	Torino	10	4	1	5	14–16	-2	13
11	Genoa	10	4	1	5	10–14	-4	13
13	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	16–20	-4	11
14	Lecce	10	3	0	7	11–21	-10	9
15	Parma	10	2	2	6	8–15	-7	8

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie A on the same day

17:00
CagliariFrosinone
302742
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
20:00
ParmaBologna
213049
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
22:45
RomaSassuolo
682110
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →