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Serie A, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)

Parma — Bologna

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Model prediction for 7 November

Parma21%
Draw30%
Bologna49%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Bologna are clear favourites: 49% against 21% for the opponent, draw 30%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Bologna are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • League table: Parma — No. 15, 8 pts; Bologna — No. 9, 14 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
  • Bologna: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Parma 2 wins, Bologna 2, 1 draw.
  • Days of rest before the match: Parma 5, Bologna 7.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Parma — Bologna What is xG?0.9–1.5
Parma not to lose51%
Bologna not to lose79%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.546%
Total under 2.554%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Parma
  • Parma goals
  • Bologna goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatParmaBologna
Goals scored per match0.81.4
Goals conceded per match1.61.3
xG per match0.731.39
Opponents’ xG1.821.32
Shots9.511.7
On target3.34.0
Corners4.14.0
Cards1.42.1
Possession, %4148

Averages per match: Parma — the last 10, Bologna — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Parma

  • 02.11away · Atalanta3:0
  • 28.10Udinese0:0
  • 24.10away · Lazio1:2
  • 19.10Torino0:3
  • 10.10away · Inter0:3

Bologna

  • 31.10Monza2:1
  • 28.10away · Milan4:2
  • 24.10away · Cagliari2:0
  • 17.10Inter1:3
  • 11.10away · Lecce2:1

Head to head

  • 08.02.2026Bologna — Parma0:1
  • 04.12.2025Bologna — Parma2:1
  • 02.11.2025Parma — Bologna1:3
  • 22.02.2025Parma — Bologna2:0
  • 06.10.2024Bologna — Parma0:0

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
8Napoli1042417–13+414
9Bologna1042414–13+114
10Torino1041514–16-213
14Lecce1030711–21-109
15Parma102268–15-78
16Fiorentina1022615–23-88

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie A on the same day

  • CagliariFrosinone
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
  • TorinoLecce
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
  • RomaSassuolo
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →