Serie B, round 11 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Carrarese — Sampdoria
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Evenly matched: Carrarese 35%, Sampdoria 34%, draw 31%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Carrarese are 99 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Carrarese — No. 16, 10 pts; Sampdoria — No. 19, 8 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 4 meetings: Carrarese 2 wins, Sampdoria 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Carrarese — Sampdoria What is xG? | 1.3–1.2 | |
| Carrarese not to lose | 66% | |
| Sampdoria not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Carrarese | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| xG per match | 1.31 | 1.42 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.29 | 1.33 |
| Shots | 13.0 | 14.7 |
| On target | 3.6 | 4.8 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 5.7 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 45 |
Form
- 01.11away · Hellas Verona0:3
- 28.10Arezzo2:1
- 25.10away · Palermo1:2
- 17.10Modena2:1
- 11.10away · Padova2:0
- 31.10Virtus Entella2:0
- 27.10away · Ascoli0:2
- 24.10away · Südtirol1:1
- 18.10Arezzo1:2
- 09.10away · Avellino1:4
Head to head
- 18.03.2026Carrarese — Sampdoria2:0
- 07.12.2025Sampdoria — Carrarese3:2
- 25.04.2025Carrarese — Sampdoria1:0
- 26.12.2024Sampdoria — Carrarese1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Virtus Entella | 10 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Carrarese | 10 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 17, Relegation play-off | LR Vicenza | 10 | 2 | -7 | 9 |
| 18, Relegation | Empoli | 10 | 2 | -7 | 8 |
| 19, Relegation | Sampdoria | 10 | 2 | -8 | 8 |
| 20, Relegation | Catanzaro | 10 | 1 | -11 | 6 |
Serie B on the same day
- 313238XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
- 3030392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →