Serie B, round 11 · Sunday, 8 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

Virtus Entella — Modena

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Model prediction for 8 November

Virtus Entella31%

Draw32%

Modena38%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Evenly matched: Virtus Entella 31%, Modena 38%, draw 32%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
In recent matches the betting market rated Modena higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Virtus Entella — No. 15, 10 pts; Modena — No. 2, 20 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
Last 2 meetings: Virtus Entella 1 win, Modena 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Virtus Entella — Modena What is xG?		1.1–1.2
Virtus Entella not to lose		62%
Modena not to lose		69%
No draw		68%
Both teams to score: yes		52%
Both teams to score: no		48%
Total over 2.5		46%
Total under 2.5		54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella goals
Modena goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Virtus Entella	Modena
Goals scored per match	1.1	1.8
Goals conceded per match	1.2	1.0
xG per match	1.13	1.54
Opponents’ xG	0.90	0.83
Shots	14.5	18.2
On target	4.0	5.3
Corners	3.9	5.1
Cards	2.1	1.7
Possession, %	51	57

Averages per match: Virtus Entella — the last 10, Modena — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Virtus Entella

31.10away · Sampdoria0:2
27.10Avellino1:1
24.10Mantova0:1
17.10away · Padova2:1
10.10Juve Stabia1:1

Modena

31.10Mantova1:1
27.10away · LR Vicenza2:1
24.10Cesena3:0
17.10away · Carrarese1:2
11.10Hellas Verona3:2

Head to head

03.03.2026Virtus Entella — Modena2:1
05.10.2025Modena — Virtus Entella2:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Palermo	10	8	2	0	24–12	+12	26
2, Promotion	Modena	10	6	2	2	18–10	+8	20
3, Promotion play-offs	Ascoli	10	5	4	1	16–6	+10	19
14	Arezzo	10	3	2	5	9–19	-10	11
15	Virtus Entella	10	2	4	4	11–12	-1	10
16, Relegation play-off	Carrarese	10	3	1	6	9–13	-4	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

19:15
CarrareseSampdoria
353134
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5
21:30
LR VicenzaCremonese
303039
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →