Serie B, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Catanzaro — Mantova
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:3Missed
In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Catanzaro to win (45%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 45% fails in about 55 matches out of 100 on average.
Catanzaro are slightly stronger: 45% against 28%, draw 27%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Catanzaro are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Catanzaro — Mantova What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| Catanzaro not to lose | 72% | |
| Mantova not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Catanzaro
- Catanzaro goals
- Mantova goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Sampdoria1:2
- 12.09Carrarese1:0
- 05.09away · Südtirol0:2
- 30.08away · Pisa1:2
- 21.08away · LR Vicenza2:3
Head to head
- 14.02.2026Catanzaro — Mantova2:0
- 29.10.2025Mantova — Catanzaro1:3
- 13.05.2025Mantova — Catanzaro0:0
- 23.11.2024Catanzaro — Mantova2:2
Table
Next matches
- Hellas VeronaCatanzaro16 October · Serie B4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- MantovaPalermo17 October · Serie B3429372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
Serie B on the same day
- 383131XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.5
- 4828241The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →