Liga MX (Mexico), round 15 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
CF América — Toluca
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
CF América are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: CF América — Toluca What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| CF América not to lose | 70% | |
| Toluca not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap CF América
- CF América goals
- Toluca goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Monterrey1:1
- 28.09away · Necaxa4:2
- 20.09Chivas2:2
- 13.09away · Cruz Azul3:4
- 30.08Puebla2:0
- 10.10away · Tigres2:3
- 27.09away · Cruz Azul3:3
- 21.09Santos Laguna2:3
- 16.09away · Puebla1:0
- 13.09Atlas5:2
Head to head
- 19.04.2026CF América — Toluca2:1
- 09.11.2025Toluca — CF América2:0
- 26.05.2025Toluca — CF América2:0
- 23.05.2025CF América — Toluca0:0
- 02.03.2025CF América — Toluca3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Liguilla (playoffs) | CF América | 10 | 6 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Liguilla (playoffs) | Toluca | 11 | 6 | +10 | 20 |
| 3, Liguilla (playoffs) | Querétaro FC | 10 | 6 | +7 | 20 |
Liga MX on the same day
- PachucaTigrespreliminary353134XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
- MonterreyTijuanapreliminary5225231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- ChivasAtlantepreliminary6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →