Uruguayan Primera Division, round 10 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK
Club Atletico Peñarol — Club Atlético Progreso
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Club Atletico Peñarol to win (81%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 81% fails in about 19 matches out of 100 on average.
Club Atletico Peñarol are clear favourites: 81% against 6% for the opponent, draw 13%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Club Atletico Peñarol are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Club Atletico Peñarol — Club Atlético Progreso What is xG? | 2.4–0.6 | |
| Club Atletico Peñarol not to lose | 94% | |
| Club Atlético Progreso not to lose | 19% | |
| No draw | 87% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Club Atletico Peñarol
- Club Atletico Peñarol goals
- Club Atlético Progreso goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 05.10away · Racing1:0
- 01.10away · Montevideo City Torque1:1
- 27.09Boston River2:1
- 19.09away · Cerro2:1
- 14.09Albion3:1
- 03.10away · Liverpool FC2:3
- 26.09Racing2:1
- 19.09away · Boston River2:1
- 13.09Cerro1:3
- 07.09away · Albion1:0
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Club Atlético Progreso — Club Atletico Peñarol0:2
- 02.08.2025Club Atletico Peñarol — Club Atlético Progreso2:1
- 02.02.2025Club Atlético Progreso — Club Atletico Peñarol1:3
- 27.11.2024Club Atlético Progreso — Club Atletico Peñarol1:5
- 23.06.2024Club Atlético Progreso — Club Atletico Peñarol0:2
Next matches
- Club Atlético ProgresoJuventud de las Piedras17 October · Uruguayan Primera2830432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.2
- Liverpool FCClub Atletico Peñarol19 October · Uruguayan Primera2730442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
Uruguayan Primera on the same day
- 343234XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:0.1.9
- 4329281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 81% will not happen in roughly 19 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →