Peruvian Liga 1 · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3)
Deportivo Moquegua — Atlético Grau
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Deportivo Moquegua are slightly stronger: 44% against 25%, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 2.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Deportivo Moquegua higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- Atlético Grau: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Deportivo Moquegua — Atlético Grau What is xG? | 1.2–0.9 | |
| Deportivo Moquegua not to lose | 75% | |
| Atlético Grau not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Deportivo Moquegua
- Deportivo Moquegua goals
- Atlético Grau goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Deportivo Moquegua | Atlético Grau |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 12.0 | 10.4 |
| On target | 3.4 | 4.0 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Possession, % | 41 | 43 |
Form
- 01.11Los Chankas0:0
- 28.10away · Asociación Deportiva Tarma0:2
- 25.10Alianza Lima0:1
- 18.10away · FC Cajamarca1:0
- 08.10Cienciano0:2
- 01.11Universitario1:3
- 29.10away · Cienciano0:3
- 23.10Asociación Deportiva Tarma1:1
- 18.10away · Alianza Lima1:3
- 08.10Los Chankas0:0
Head to head
- 29.05.2026Atlético Grau — Deportivo Moquegua1:0
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- Cusco FCAsociación Deportiva Tarmapreliminary6421151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- ADC Juan Pablo IIDeportivo Garcilasopreliminary3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Alianza LimaFC Cajamarcapreliminary87941The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.4
- UTC CajamarcaLos Chankaspreliminary4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Comerciantes UnidosSport Boyspreliminary4527281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →