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Chilean Liga de Primera, round 26 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Monumental David Arellano

Colo Colo — Universidad de Concepción

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Model prediction and result

6:1Came true
Colo Colo81%
Draw12%
Universidad de Concepción7%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 6:1: the model's most likely outcome, Colo Colo to win (81%), came true.

Colo Colo are clear favourites: 81% against 7% for the opponent, draw 12%.

3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 40%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Colo Colo are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Colo Colo are 364 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Colo Colo: winless in 4; Universidad de Concepción: winless in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Colo Colo — Universidad de Concepción What is xG?2.5–0.6
Colo Colo not to lose93%
Universidad de Concepción not to lose19%
No draw88%
Both teams to score: yes40%
Both teams to score: no60%
Total over 2.562%
Total under 2.538%

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Match events

  1. 7′Álvaro Madrid · Colo Colo1:0
  2. 9′Javier Correa · Colo Colo2:0
  3. 20′Javier Correa · Colo Colo3:0
  4. 24′Joaquín Sosa · Colo Colo
  5. 34′Arturo Vidal · Colo Colo
  6. 36′Javier Correa · Colo Colo4:0
  7. 40′Antonio Díaz · Universidad de Concepción
  8. 45′Javier Correa · Colo Colo5:0
  9. 47′Jeison Fuentealba · Universidad de Concepción5:1
  10. 52′Joaquín Sosa · Colo Colo6:1
  11. 57′Benjamín Sáez · Universidad de Concepción
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Cristhofer Mesías ↔ Luis Rojas · Universidad de Concepción
  2. 46′Benjamín Sáez ↔ Osvaldo González · Universidad de Concepción
  3. 59′Bastián Ubal ↔ Facundo Mater · Universidad de Concepción
  4. 59′Cecilio Waterman ↔ Rogelio Funes Mori · Universidad de Concepción
  5. 63′Cristian Díaz ↔ Arturo Vidal · Colo Colo
  6. 63′Diego Ulloa ↔ Joaquín Sosa · Colo Colo
  7. 68′Maximiliano Romero ↔ Javier Correa · Colo Colo
  8. 68′Claudio Aquino ↔ Álvaro Madrid · Colo Colo
  9. 76′Javier Méndez ↔ Jonathan Villagra · Colo Colo
  10. 81′Francisco Herrera ↔ Bryan Ogaz · Universidad de Concepción

Match statistics

Colo ColoUniversidad de Concepción
  • 72Possession, %28
  • 13Shots11
  • 10On target1
  • 4Big chances1
  • 5Corners3
  • 7Fouls4
  • 1Offsides3
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards1

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Colo Colo

  1. GKVozinha6.2
  2. DFJoaquín Sosa63′7.5
  3. DFJonathan Villagra76′7.2
  4. DFErick Wiemberg7.8
  5. DFJeyson Rojas7.9
  6. MFFelipe Méndez8.3
  7. MFArturo Vidal (C)63′7.9
  8. MFÁlvaro Madrid68′8.0
  9. FWJavier Correa68′9.9
  10. FWFrancisco Marchant8.4
  11. FWGedeón Díaz7.7
Came on (5)
  1. DFDiego Ulloa27′6.9
  2. FWMaximiliano Romero22′5.9
  3. MFClaudio Aquino22′5.9
  4. DFJavier Méndez14′6.3
  5. MFCristian Díaz27′6.5

Universidad de Concepción

  1. GKJorge Emanuel Broun4.5
  2. DFMiguel Barbieri5.0
  3. DFAntonio Díaz4.8
  4. DFMoisés González4.6
  5. DFOsvaldo González (C)45′3.2
  6. MFFacundo Mater59′6.8
  7. MFBryan Ogaz81′6.3
  8. MFHarol Salgado5.8
  9. MFJeison Fuentealba6.7
  10. FWRogelio Funes Mori59′6.2
  11. FWLuis Rojas45′6.3
Came on (5)
  1. FWCecilio Waterman31′6.1
  2. DFBenjamín Sáez12′4.9
  3. DFBastián Ubal31′6.2
  4. DFCristhofer Mesías45′6.2
  5. MFFrancisco Herrera9′

Form

Colo Colo

  • 25.10away · Palestino1:1
  • 11.10away · Coquimbo Unido2:5
  • 13.09Deportes Concepción1:1
  • 06.09away · Huachipato0:0
  • 31.08Audax Italiano5:1

Universidad de Concepción

  • 26.10Deportes Limache0:1
  • 10.10away · Cobresal1:1
  • 03.10Huachipato0:2
  • 07.09away · Palestino1:2
  • 03.09away · Coquimbo Unido0:1

Head to head

  • 26.04.2026Universidad de Concepción — Colo Colo1:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1Colo Colo26184457–29+2858
2Universidad de Chile26146645–21+2448
14Cobresal26761338–48-1027
15, RelegationUniversidad de Concepción26651519–47-2823
16, RelegationUnión La Calera26561523–43-2021

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

Chilean Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 81% will not happen in roughly 19 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →