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Chilean Liga de Primera, round 26 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Municipal Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Coquimbo Unido — Unión La Calera

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Model prediction and result

1:0Came true
Coquimbo Unido58%
Draw23%
Unión La Calera20%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Coquimbo Unido to win (58%), came true.

Coquimbo Unido are clear favourites: 58% against 20% for the opponent, draw 23%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Coquimbo Unido are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
  • Coquimbo Unido are 219 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Coquimbo Unido 4 wins, Unión La Calera 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Coquimbo Unido — Unión La Calera What is xG?1.8–0.9
Coquimbo Unido not to lose80%
Unión La Calera not to lose42%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

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  • Handicap Coquimbo Unido
  • Coquimbo Unido goals
  • Unión La Calera goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 1′Luis Riveros · Coquimbo Unido
  2. 22′Sebastián Cabrera · Coquimbo Unido
  3. 27′Yerko Leiva · Unión La Calera
  4. 63′Luis Riveros · Coquimbo Unido1:0
  5. 70′Nicolás Ferreyra · Unión La Calera
Substitutions (8)
  1. 46′Nicolás Ferreyra ↔ Yerko Leiva · Unión La Calera
  2. 46′Bayron Oyarzo ↔ Francisco Pozzo · Unión La Calera
  3. 64′Vicente Lavín ↔ Yonathan Andía · Unión La Calera
  4. 64′Joaquín Soto ↔ Maximiliano Fernández · Unión La Calera
  5. 77′Elvis Hernández ↔ Guido Vadalá · Coquimbo Unido
  6. 77′Alejandro Maximiliano Camargo ↔ Cristián Zavala · Coquimbo Unido
  7. 79′Matías Campos ↔ Juan Salomoni · Unión La Calera
  8. 86′Matías Zepeda ↔ Salvador Cordero · Coquimbo Unido

Match statistics

Coquimbo UnidoUnión La Calera
  • 41Possession, %59
  • 10Shots12
  • 5On target3
  • 2Big chances0
  • 4Corners9
  • 13Fouls17
  • 1Offsides2
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 1Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Coquimbo Unido

  1. GKDiego Sánchez7.6
  2. DFFrancisco Salinas8.1
  3. DFBenjamín Gazzolo7.5
  4. DFJuan Cornejo8.0
  5. DFManuel Fernández7.6
  6. MFSebastián Galani (C)6.9
  7. MFGuido Vadalá77′7.3
  8. MFSalvador Cordero86′6.5
  9. FWCristián Zavala77′6.5
  10. FWLuis Riveros8.2
  11. FWSebastián Cabrera22′5.0
Came on (3)
  1. DFElvis Hernández13′6.2
  2. MFAlejandro Maximiliano Camargo13′6.7
  3. MFMatías Zepeda4′

Unión La Calera

  1. GKNicolás Avellaneda7.2
  2. DFChristopher Díaz7.0
  3. DFJuan Salomoni79′6.8
  4. DFCristián Gutiérrez7.5
  5. DFDaniel Gutiérrez7.2
  6. MFRodrigo Pérez6.3
  7. MFYonathan Andía64′6.1
  8. MFYerko Leiva45′6.5
  9. FWFrancisco Pozzo45′5.8
  10. FWSebastián Sáez (C)6.2
  11. FWMaximiliano Fernández64′7.3
Came on (5)
  1. FWNicolás Ferreyra45′6.0
  2. DFVicente Lavín26′5.8
  3. FWBayron Oyarzo45′6.3
  4. FWMatías Campos11′6.0
  5. MFJoaquín Soto26′6.3

Form

Coquimbo Unido

  • 25.10away · Ñublense1:2
  • 11.10Colo Colo5:2
  • 17.09Huachipato0:1
  • 12.09away · Cobresal2:3
  • 06.09away · Universidad de Chile2:4

Unión La Calera

  • 25.10Universidad Católica3:1
  • 11.10away · Deportes Concepción1:1
  • 15.09Deportes Limache1:0
  • 06.09away · O'Higgins1:2
  • 01.09La Serena0:1

Head to head

  • 25.04.2026Unión La Calera — Coquimbo Unido1:2
  • 02.11.2025Coquimbo Unido — Unión La Calera2:0
  • 17.05.2025Unión La Calera — Coquimbo Unido0:1
  • 03.11.2024Coquimbo Unido — Unión La Calera0:0
  • 25.05.2024Unión La Calera — Coquimbo Unido1:2

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
7Huachipato261061035–40-536
8Coquimbo Unido261051138–36+235
9Deportes Concepción261051128–30-235
15, RelegationUniversidad de Concepción26651519–47-2823
16, RelegationUnión La Calera26561523–43-2021

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

Chilean Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →