Major League Soccer (MLS), round 28 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Dick's Sporting Goods Park
Colorado Rapids — San Jose Earthquakes
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Colorado Rapids to win (43%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 43% fails in about 57 matches out of 100 on average.
Colorado Rapids are slightly stronger: 43% against 31%, draw 26%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- San Jose Earthquakes: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Colorado Rapids 3 wins, San Jose Earthquakes 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Colorado Rapids — San Jose Earthquakes What is xG? | 1.8–1.5 | |
| Colorado Rapids not to lose | 69% | |
| San Jose Earthquakes not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Colorado Rapids
- Colorado Rapids goals
- San Jose Earthquakes goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 27.09away · LA Galaxy2:3
- 20.09Seattle Sounders FC3:3
- 17.09St. Louis City0:3
- 13.09CF Montréal1:0
- 10.09away · Austin FC1:1
- 27.09Portland Timbers3:1
- 20.09Los Angeles FC2:2
- 13.09Houston Dynamo FC1:0
- 10.09away · San Diego FC3:2
- 06.09away · Austin FC1:1
Head to head
- 21.05.2026Colorado Rapids — San Jose Earthquakes2:0
- 11.05.2025Colorado Rapids — San Jose Earthquakes0:2
- 16.03.2025San Jose Earthquakes — Colorado Rapids1:2
- 12.05.2024Colorado Rapids — San Jose Earthquakes2:3
- 14.04.2024San Jose Earthquakes — Colorado Rapids0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | +7 | 47 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | +10 | 46 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Charlotte FC | 28 | 13 | +10 | 46 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Seattle Sounders FC | 28 | 11 | +3 | 41 |
| 14, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 0 | 37 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | -15 | 37 |
Next matches
- Colorado RapidsMinnesota United15 October · MLS4727261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- Real Salt LakeSan Jose Earthquakes15 October · MLS4726271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
MLS on the same day
- 4326301The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.3.4
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 5723201The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7
- 4028311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 3827351The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.5
- 3728351The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 6620141The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.5
- 2327502The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →