Major League Soccer (MLS), round 31 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Columbus Crew — Toronto FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Columbus Crew are clear favourites: 58% against 18% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects few goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Columbus Crew are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Columbus Crew — Toronto FC What is xG? | 1.7–0.9 | |
| Columbus Crew not to lose | 82% | |
| Toronto FC not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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Form
- 11.10away · Orlando City2:3
- 28.09Inter Miami CF2:1
- 20.09away · CF Montréal2:0
- 17.09Orlando City2:1
- 13.09Red Bull New York0:1
- 10.10CF Montréal2:1
- 27.09away · Nashville SC0:2
- 20.09away · St. Louis City1:3
- 13.09away · Orlando City0:3
- 10.09Nashville SC2:1
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Toronto FC — Columbus Crew2:1
- 21.09.2025Columbus Crew — Toronto FC1:1
- 17.08.2025Toronto FC — Columbus Crew1:1
- 19.09.2024Toronto FC — Columbus Crew0:2
- 07.07.2024Columbus Crew — Toronto FC4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | -5 | 32 |
| 23 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | -11 | 32 |
| 24 | Austin FC | 28 | 7 | -15 | 31 |
| 26 | DC United | 27 | 6 | -12 | 30 |
| 27 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | -5 | 29 |
| 28 | Atlanta United | 28 | 7 | -15 | 27 |
MLS on the same day
- CF MontréalNashville SCpreliminary2726482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →