Serie A, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Como — Cagliari
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Como are clear favourites: 71% against 9% for the opponent, draw 20%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Como are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
- Como are 328 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Como — No. 4, 23 pts; Cagliari — No. 12, 13 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Como: 5 wins in a row; Cagliari: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Como 2 wins, Cagliari 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Como — Cagliari What is xG? | 2.1–0.8 | |
| Como not to lose | 91% | |
| Cagliari not to lose | 29% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Como
- Como goals
- Cagliari goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Como | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 2.00 | 1.16 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.12 | 1.86 |
| Shots | 17.8 | 10.6 |
| On target | 6.1 | 3.9 |
| Corners | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Possession, % | 60 | 42 |
Form
- 01.11Venezia1:0
- 27.10away · Torino3:1
- 24.10Sassuolo2:0
- 21.10Manchester United4:1
- 18.10away · Fiorentina3:1
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Cagliari — Como1:2
- 08.11.2025Como — Cagliari0:0
- 10.05.2025Como — Cagliari3:1
- 26.08.2024Cagliari — Como1:1
- 14.01.2023Cagliari — Como2:0
Table
Serie A on the same day
- LazioLeccepreliminary6623101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- ParmaRomapreliminary1222662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- NapoliTorinopreliminary6125151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 71% will not happen in roughly 29 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →