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Serie A, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Lazio — Lecce

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Model prediction for 21 November

Lazio66%
Draw23%
Lecce10%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lazio are clear favourites: 66% against 10% for the opponent, draw 23%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Lazio are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
  • Lazio are 343 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Lazio — No. 1, 28 pts; Lecce — No. 14, 9 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
  • Lazio: 5 wins in a row; Lecce: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Lazio 3 wins, Lecce 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lazio — Lecce What is xG?1.9–0.8
Lazio not to lose90%
Lecce not to lose34%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.551%
Total under 2.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Lazio
  • Lazio goals
  • Lecce goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLazioLecce
Goals scored per match2.41.1
Goals conceded per match0.82.1
xG per match1.611.32
Opponents’ xG1.151.91
Shots13.812.7
On target4.65.0
Corners4.74.5
Cards1.62.0
Possession, %5442

Averages per match: Lazio — the last 10, Lecce — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Lazio

  • 01.11Cagliari2:1
  • 27.10away · Sassuolo6:2
  • 24.10Parma2:1
  • 18.10away · Juventus3:0
  • 11.10Monza3:1

Lecce

  • 01.11Genoa1:2
  • 29.10away · Frosinone1:5
  • 25.10Juventus0:2
  • 18.10away · Udinese3:0
  • 11.10Bologna1:2

Head to head

  • 24.01.2026Lecce — Lazio0:0
  • 23.11.2025Lazio — Lecce2:0
  • 25.05.2025Lazio — Lecce0:1
  • 21.12.2024Lecce — Lazio1:2
  • 14.01.2024Lazio — Lecce1:0

Full record: 10 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Champions LeagueLazio1091024–8+1628
2, Champions LeagueInter1081126–13+1325
13Atalanta1032516–20-411
14Lecce1030711–21-109
15Parma102268–15-78

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie A on the same day

  • ComoCagliaripreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • ParmaRomapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
  • NapoliTorinopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →