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Serie A, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Parma — Roma

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Model prediction for 21 November

Parma12%
Draw22%
Roma66%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Roma are clear favourites: 66% against 12% for the opponent, draw 22%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Roma are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
  • Roma are 209 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Parma — No. 15, 8 pts; Roma — No. 3, 24 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Parma 1 win, Roma 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Parma — Roma What is xG?0.8–1.9
Parma not to lose34%
Roma not to lose88%
No draw78%
Both teams to score: yes50%
Both teams to score: no50%
Total over 2.551%
Total under 2.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Parma
  • Parma goals
  • Roma goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatParmaRoma
Goals scored per match0.82.7
Goals conceded per match1.61.6
xG per match0.732.03
Opponents’ xG1.821.68
Shots9.516.1
On target3.35.8
Corners4.15.5
Cards1.42.2
Possession, %4155

Averages per match: Parma — the last 10, Roma — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Parma

  • 02.11away · Atalanta3:0
  • 28.10Udinese0:0
  • 24.10away · Lazio1:2
  • 19.10Torino0:3
  • 10.10away · Inter0:3

Roma

  • 03.11away · Manchester United2:3
  • 31.10away · Udinese5:2
  • 27.10Cagliari4:2
  • 24.10away · Napoli3:3
  • 20.10Slovan Bratislava4:0

Head to head

  • 10.05.2026Parma — Roma2:3
  • 29.10.2025Roma — Parma2:1
  • 16.02.2025Parma — Roma0:1
  • 22.12.2024Roma — Parma5:0
  • 14.03.2021Parma — Roma2:0

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2, Champions LeagueInter1081126–13+1325
3, Champions LeagueRoma1073028–10+1824
4, Champions LeagueComo1072118–8+1023
14Lecce1030711–21-109
15Parma102268–15-78
16Fiorentina1022615–23-88

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie A on the same day

  • ComoCagliaripreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • LazioLeccepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
  • NapoliTorinopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →