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Serie A, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Napoli — Torino

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Model prediction for 21 November

Napoli61%
Draw25%
Torino15%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Napoli are clear favourites: 61% against 15% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Napoli are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
  • Napoli are 211 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Napoli — No. 8, 14 pts; Torino — No. 10, 13 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Last 5 meetings: Napoli 3 wins, Torino 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Napoli — Torino What is xG?1.8–0.8
Napoli not to lose85%
Torino not to lose39%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.549%
Total under 2.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Napoli
  • Napoli goals
  • Torino goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatNapoliTorino
Goals scored per match1.71.3
Goals conceded per match1.51.5
xG per match1.561.17
Opponents’ xG1.451.51
Shots14.711.6
On target5.73.6
Corners4.74.4
Cards1.31.2
Possession, %5350

Averages per match: Napoli — the last 10, Torino — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Napoli

  • 01.11away · Juventus0:2
  • 28.10away · Monza4:1
  • 24.10Roma3:3
  • 20.10Bodø/Glimt4:3
  • 17.10away · Venezia0:1

Torino

  • 01.11away · Frosinone0:2
  • 27.10Como1:3
  • 23.10Monza3:2
  • 19.10away · Parma3:0
  • 12.10Udinese2:1

Head to head

  • 06.03.2026Napoli — Torino2:1
  • 18.10.2025Torino — Napoli1:0
  • 27.04.2025Napoli — Torino2:0
  • 01.12.2024Torino — Napoli0:1
  • 08.03.2024Napoli — Torino1:1

Full record: 20 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
7Juventus1052313–10+317
8Napoli1042417–13+414
9Bologna1042414–13+114
10Torino1041514–16-213
11Genoa1041510–14-413

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie A on the same day

  • ComoCagliaripreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
  • LazioLeccepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
  • ParmaRomapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →