Brazilian Serie A, round 33 · Saturday, 31 October, 22:00 (UTC+3) · Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Coritiba — Vitória

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true

Coritiba37%

Draw31%

Vitória32%

Model estimate at 08:18 (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Coritiba to win (37%), came true.

Evenly matched: Coritiba 37%, Vitória 32%, draw 31%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Coritiba are 50 points higher on Elo.

Facts

Coritiba: winless in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Coritiba — Vitória What is xG?		1.4–1.3
Coritiba not to lose		68%
Vitória not to lose		63%
No draw		69%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		52%
Total under 2.5		48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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Handicap Coritiba
Coritiba goals
Vitória goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Match events

58′Pedro Rocha · Coritiba1:0
62′Emanuel Brítez · Vitória
69′Tinga · Coritiba2:0
94′Tissi · Coritiba

Substitutions (10)

67′Matheuzinho ↔ Emanuel Brítez · Vitória
68′Renato Kayzer ↔ Zé Vitor · Vitória
68′Gabriel Baralhas ↔ Caíque · Vitória
80′Vini Paulista ↔ Sebastián Gómez · Coritiba
80′Joaquín Lavega ↔ Pedro Rocha · Coritiba
85′Tissi ↔ Nicolás Fonseca · Coritiba
85′Rodrigo Gelado ↔ Bruno Melo · Coritiba
87′Alex Bruno ↔ Renê · Vitória
87′Lucas Silva ↔ Diego Tarzia · Vitória
89′Rodrigo Moledo ↔ Josué · Coritiba

Match statistics

CoritibaVitória

2.30Expected goals (xG)0.53
49Possession, %51
20Shots7
7On target1
6Big chances2
7Corners5
20Fouls12
0Offsides0
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Coritiba

GKPedro Morisco7.3
DFTiago7.8
DFBruno Melo85′6.9
DFJacy (C)7.6
DFTinga8.2
MFNicolás Fonseca85′6.8
MFThiago Santos7.4
MFSebastián Gómez80′7.6
FWJosué89′7.9
FWPedro Rocha80′7.8
FWBreno Lopes7.6

Came on (5)

MFTissi5′
DFRodrigo Moledo1′
FWJoaquín Lavega10′6.0
DFRodrigo Gelado5′
FWVini Paulista10′6.4

Vitória

GKLucas Arcanjo (C)7.1
DFCacá5.8
DFEmanuel Brítez67′6.3
DFEdenilson6.5
DFGean6.8
MFEmmanuel Martínez6.8
MFCaíque68′6.4
MFZé Vitor68′7.2
FWErick6.7
FWDiego Tarzia87′6.7
FWRenê87′5.7

Came on (5)

FWLucas Silva3′
MFMatheuzinho23′5.9
FWRenato Kayzer22′5.9
FWAlex Bruno3′
MFGabriel Baralhas22′6.2

Form

Coritiba

27.10Grêmio0:1
18.10away · Atlético-MG0:1
12.10Botafogo1:1
09.10away · Fluminense0:4
20.09away · Vasco da Gama0:5

Vitória

24.10Athletico Paranaense1:1
20.10away · Corinthians1:1
11.10away · São Paulo1:2
08.10Chapecoense4:0
20.09Cruzeiro1:3

Head to head

03.05.2026Vitória — Coritiba4:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10, Copa Sudamericana	São Paulo	33	12	7	14	39–39	0	43
11, Copa Sudamericana	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40–51	-11	42
12	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39–48	-9	40
15	Vasco da Gama	32	10	8	14	40–49	-9	38
16	Vitória	33	10	8	15	35–48	-13	38
17, Relegation	Grêmio	33	9	10	14	37–44	-7	37

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

03:30
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Brasileirao on the same day

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1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →