2. Bundesliga, round 9 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Darmstadt — St. Pauli
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Darmstadt 36%, St. Pauli 35%, draw 29%.
The model expects few goals: 2.5 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Darmstadt — St. Pauli What is xG? | 1.3–1.2 | |
| Darmstadt not to lose | 65% | |
| St. Pauli not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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- Handicap Darmstadt
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- St. Pauli goals
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Form
- 10.10Energie Cottbus3:1
- 18.09away · Wolfsburg1:5
- 11.09Arminia Bielefeld2:1
- 05.09away · Kaiserslautern0:3
- 30.08Hannover 960:1
- 11.10Karlsruher SC2:0
- 20.09away · Energie Cottbus1:1
- 12.09Wolfsburg1:0
- 04.09away · Arminia Bielefeld2:2
- 30.08Kaiserslautern1:2
Head to head
- 06.05.2023Darmstadt — St. Pauli0:3
- 29.10.2022St. Pauli — Darmstadt1:1
- 23.04.2022St. Pauli — Darmstadt1:2
- 20.11.2021Darmstadt — St. Pauli4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kaiserslautern | 7 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | St. Pauli | 7 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Energie Cottbus | 7 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Hannover 96 | 7 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Darmstadt | 7 | 2 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Greuther Fürth | 7 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- BochumWolfsburgpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 2:33.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →