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Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Jocay

Delfín — Deportivo Cuenca

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Model prediction and result

3:1Came true
Delfín41%
Draw31%
Deportivo Cuenca28%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Delfín to win (41%), came true.

Delfín are slightly stronger: 41% against 28%, draw 31%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • In recent matches the betting market rated Delfín higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

  • Deportivo Cuenca: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Delfín 2 wins, Deportivo Cuenca 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Delfín — Deportivo Cuenca What is xG?1.2–1.0
Delfín not to lose72%
Deportivo Cuenca not to lose59%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes47%
Both teams to score: no53%
Total over 2.541%
Total under 2.559%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Delfín
  • Delfín goals
  • Deportivo Cuenca goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 3′Jeremy Mejía · Deportivo Cuenca0:1
  2. 20′Anthony Bedoya · Delfín1:1
  3. 39′Thiago Ozaeta · Delfín
  4. 40′Gian Nardelli · Deportivo Cuenca
  5. 46′Carlos Arboleda · Deportivo Cuenca
  6. 56′Erick Zúñiga · Delfín
  7. 58′Patricio Boolsen · Deportivo Cuenca
  8. 58′Ayrton Cisneros · Delfín
  9. 68′Anthony Bedoya · Delfín
  10. 70′Jonathan Morocho · Delfín
  11. 72′Jorge Ordóñez · Deportivo Cuenca
  12. 80′Leao Tenorio · Delfín2:1
  13. 85′Danny Luna · Delfín3:1
  14. 86′Emerson Espinoza · Delfín
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Jorge Ordóñez ↔ Lucas Mancinelli · Deportivo Cuenca
  2. 46′Mateo Piedra ↔ Jeremy Mejía · Deportivo Cuenca
  3. 64′Leao Tenorio ↔ Erick Zúñiga · Delfín
  4. 64′Jefferson Arce ↔ Maikel Reyes · Delfín
  5. 74′Germán Rivero ↔ Cristhian Benalcazar · Deportivo Cuenca
  6. 74′Yeltzin Erique ↔ Melvin Díaz · Deportivo Cuenca
  7. 77′Emerson Espinoza ↔ Gerónimo Heredia · Delfín
  8. 84′Matías Klimowicz ↔ Édison Vega · Deportivo Cuenca
  9. 87′Lucas Cornejo ↔ Danny Luna · Delfín
  10. 87′Enzo Alejandro Rubio ↔ Anthony Bedoya · Delfín

Match statistics

DelfínDeportivo Cuenca
  • 62Possession, %38
  • 15Shots8
  • 4On target1
  • 2Big chances1
  • 4Corners4
  • 18Fouls18
  • 0Offsides1
  • 6Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards1

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Delfín

  1. GKBrian Heras6.4
  2. DFErick Zúñiga64′7.4
  3. DFAnthony Bedoya (C)87′8.3
  4. DFBryan Hernández6.9
  5. DFAyrton Cisneros7.0
  6. MFGerónimo Heredia77′6.8
  7. MFDanny Luna87′8.3
  8. MFJonathan Morocho7.2
  9. FWEber Caicedo7.1
  10. FWMaikel Reyes64′7.1
  11. FWThiago Ozaeta9.0
Came on (5)
  1. MFLucas Cornejo3′
  2. MFJefferson Arce26′6.6
  3. DFEnzo Alejandro Rubio3′
  4. FWLeao Tenorio26′7.3
  5. MFEmerson Espinoza13′6.3

Deportivo Cuenca

  1. GKFacundo Ferrero5.6
  2. DFSantiago Postel6.3
  3. DFGian Nardelli5.6
  4. DFPatricio Boolsen6.7
  5. DFCarlos Arboleda45′4.9
  6. MFMateo Maccari6.4
  7. MFÉdison Vega84′6.1
  8. MFJeremy Mejía45′7.5
  9. FWMelvin Díaz74′6.1
  10. FWLucas Mancinelli (C)45′6.0
  11. FWCristhian Benalcazar74′6.0
Came on (5)
  1. FWMatías Klimowicz6′
  2. DFMateo Piedra45′6.0
  3. DFYeltzin Erique16′6.2
  4. FWJorge Ordóñez45′6.2
  5. FWGermán Rivero16′5.7

Form

Delfín

  • 24.10away · Orense0:4
  • 18.10Manta4:2
  • 09.10Mushuc Runa3:2
  • 20.09away · Técnico Universitario1:1
  • 14.09away · Barcelona SC1:1

Deportivo Cuenca

  • 24.10away · Manta2:0
  • 16.10Técnico Universitario2:1
  • 11.10away · Orense0:0
  • 21.09Mushuc Runa1:1
  • 13.09away · LDU de Quito1:1

Head to head

  • 31.05.2026Deportivo Cuenca — Delfín1:0
  • 22.02.2026Delfín — Deportivo Cuenca1:0
  • 06.12.2025Deportivo Cuenca — Delfín0:0
  • 01.11.2025Delfín — Deportivo Cuenca2:0
  • 14.07.2025Deportivo Cuenca — Delfín1:1

Full record: 11 meetings →

Next matches

  • Deportivo CuencaOrense7 November · LigaPro Serie A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
  • Mushuc RunaDelfín9 November · LigaPro Serie A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5

LigaPro Serie A on the same day

  • EmelecLeones del Norte
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →