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Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio George Capwell Banco del Austro

Emelec — Leones del Norte

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Model prediction and result

0:2Missed
Emelec42%
Draw30%
Leones del Norte27%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Emelec to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.

Emelec are slightly stronger: 42% against 27%, draw 30%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Emelec are 62 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 3 meetings: Emelec 2 wins, Leones del Norte 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Emelec — Leones del Norte What is xG?1.4–1.1
Emelec not to lose73%
Leones del Norte not to lose58%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes53%
Both teams to score: no47%
Total over 2.548%
Total under 2.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Emelec
  • Emelec goals
  • Leones del Norte goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 34′Orlando Herrera · Emelec
  2. 39′Aníbal Leguizamón · Emelec
  3. 44′Mauro Luque · Leones del Norte0:1
  4. 52′Tobías Coppo · Leones del Norte
  5. 79′Luís Gómez · Emelec
  6. 80′Sebastián Arce · Emelec
  7. 81′Charles Vélez · Leones del Norte
  8. 86′Mauro Luque · Leones del Norte0:2
Substitutions (9)
  1. 41′Luís Gómez ↔ Orlando Herrera · Emelec
  2. 46′Sebastián Arce ↔ Juan Ruíz · Emelec
  3. 46′Andrés Viteri ↔ Angelo Mina · Emelec
  4. 67′Ariel Aguas ↔ Martín Caramuto · Leones del Norte
  5. 68′Ronie Carrillo ↔ José Cevallos · Emelec
  6. 79′Maiky De La Cruz ↔ Segundo Portocarrero · Leones del Norte
  7. 80′Charles Vélez ↔ Emiliano Griffa · Leones del Norte
  8. 90′Thomás Amilivia ↔ Tobías Coppo · Leones del Norte
  9. 91′Brian Kreiman ↔ Cristhian Solano · Leones del Norte

Match statistics

EmelecLeones del Norte
  • 58Possession, %42
  • 14Shots16
  • 2On target4
  • 0Big chances2
  • 3Corners5
  • 21Fouls16
  • 0Offsides1
  • 4Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Emelec

  1. GKPedro Ortíz6.0
  2. DFAníbal Leguizamón6.4
  3. DFOrlando Herrera41′6.1
  4. DFAriel Mina6.7
  5. DFFernando León (C)6.4
  6. MFVíctor Griffith6.8
  7. MFJosé Cevallos68′5.9
  8. FWLuca Klimowicz6.0
  9. FWAngelo Mina45′6.2
  10. FWJuan Ruíz45′6.1
  11. FWReixon Saya6.0
Came on (4)
  1. FWRonie Carrillo22′6.0
  2. DFLuís Gómez49′6.8
  3. MFSebastián Arce45′6.5
  4. FWAndrés Viteri45′5.3

Leones del Norte

  1. GKLeonel Nazareno7.5
  2. DFSegundo Portocarrero79′7.3
  3. DFJordan Morán8.1
  4. DFNicolás Monserrat6.9
  5. DFMauro Luque9.3
  6. MFPatricio Madero7.7
  7. MFTobías Coppo89′8.2
  8. MFEmiliano Griffa80′7.2
  9. FWCristhian Solano89′7.1
  10. FWJuan Anangonó (C)7.0
  11. FWMartín Caramuto67′7.5
Came on (5)
  1. DFAriel Aguas23′6.2
  2. DFBrian Kreiman1′
  3. DFMaiky De La Cruz11′7.1
  4. FWThomás Amilivia1′
  5. MFCharles Vélez10′6.1

Form

Emelec

  • 25.10Guayaquil City0:1
  • 18.10away · Leones del Norte3:1
  • 11.10away · Guayaquil City2:3
  • 20.09Libertad (ECU)1:2
  • 13.09away · CSD Macará0:1

Leones del Norte

  • 25.10Libertad (ECU)4:1
  • 18.10Emelec1:3
  • 09.10away · Libertad (ECU)0:3
  • 20.09away · Guayaquil City1:1
  • 13.09Técnico Universitario0:1

Head to head

  • 18.10.2026Leones del Norte — Emelec1:3
  • 31.08.2026Emelec — Leones del Norte2:1
  • 04.05.2026Leones del Norte — Emelec2:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

Next matches

  • Libertad (ECU)Emelec7 November · LigaPro Serie A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
  • Leones del NorteGuayaquil City8 November · LigaPro Serie A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5

LigaPro Serie A on the same day

  • DelfínDeportivo Cuenca
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →