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Chilean Liga de Primera, round 26 · Tuesday, 3 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Deportes Concepción — Palestino

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Model prediction and result

1:0Missed
Deportes Concepción34%
Draw28%
Palestino38%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Palestino to win (38%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 38% fails in about 62 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Deportes Concepción 34%, Palestino 38%, draw 28%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Palestino are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Deportes Concepción's starting XI is weaker than usual (defence).

Facts

  • Deportes Concepción: winless in 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Deportes Concepción — Palestino What is xG?1.2–1.3
Deportes Concepción not to lose62%
Palestino not to lose66%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.550%
Total under 2.550%

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Match events

  1. 34′Marcelo Eggel · Palestino
  2. 35′Fausto Grillo · Deportes Concepción1:0
  3. 52′Vicente Espinoza · Palestino
  4. 76′Bryan Carrasco · Palestino
  5. 77′Ethan Espinoza · Deportes Concepción
  6. 95′Mario Sandoval · Deportes Concepción
Substitutions (8)
  1. 46′Jonathan Benítez ↔ Marcelo Eggel · Palestino
  2. 46′Ian Alegría ↔ Gonzalo Tapia · Palestino
  3. 59′Fernando Romero ↔ Joaquín Montecinos · Deportes Concepción
  4. 63′Joe Abrigo ↔ Jason León · Palestino
  5. 66′Martín Araya ↔ Jonathan Benítez · Palestino
  6. 75′Jorge Henríquez ↔ Matías Cavalleri · Deportes Concepción
  7. 82′Brayan Véjar ↔ Mateo González · Deportes Concepción
  8. 83′Francisco Montes ↔ Bryan Carrasco · Palestino

Match statistics

Deportes ConcepciónPalestino
  • 34Possession, %66
  • 7Shots16
  • 2On target5
  • 1Big chances0
  • 3Corners8
  • 9Fouls15
  • 0Offsides2
  • 2Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Deportes Concepción

  1. GKNicolás Araya7.9
  2. DFFausto Grillo8.2
  3. DFNorman Rodríguez7.8
  4. DFCristián Riquelme7.3
  5. DFMateo González82′7.0
  6. MFEthan Espinoza7.4
  7. MFMario Sandoval7.7
  8. MFMisael Dávila6.7
  9. FWJoaquín Larrivey (C)8.0
  10. FWJoaquín Montecinos59′6.4
  11. FWMatías Cavalleri75′7.3
Came on (3)
  1. FWFernando Romero31′5.9
  2. MFJorge Henríquez15′6.6
  3. MFBrayan Véjar8′

Palestino

  1. GKSebastián Pérez6.1
  2. DFEnzo Roco7.3
  3. DFBryan Carrasco (C)83′7.0
  4. DFVicente Espinoza6.6
  5. DFJason León63′7.7
  6. MFDylan Glaby7.5
  7. MFMarcelo Eggel45′6.5
  8. MFSebastián Gallegos7.6
  9. FWCésar Munder6.3
  10. FWRonnie Fernández6.5
  11. FWGonzalo Tapia45′6.0
Came on (5)
  1. MFJoe Abrigo27′6.1
  2. FWIan Alegría45′6.2
  3. MFFrancisco Montes7′
  4. FWMartín Araya24′6.4
  5. FWJonathan Benítez21′6.0

Form

Deportes Concepción

  • 24.10away · La Serena1:3
  • 11.10Unión La Calera1:1
  • 13.09away · Colo Colo1:1
  • 05.09Audax Italiano0:1
  • 30.08away · Ñublense1:0

Palestino

  • 25.10Colo Colo1:1
  • 12.10away · Deportes Limache2:2
  • 13.09Universidad Católica2:3
  • 07.09Universidad de Concepción2:1
  • 29.08away · Cobresal0:2

Head to head

  • 24.04.2026Palestino — Deportes Concepción0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
5Everton CD26117843–33+1040
6Palestino261151039–37+238
7Huachipato261061035–40-536
8Coquimbo Unido261051138–36+235
9Deportes Concepción261051128–30-235
10Ñublense2698930–39-935

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

  • La SerenaPalestino7 November · Chilean Primera
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
  • Everton CDDeportes Concepción7 November · Chilean Primera
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5

Chilean Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →