Scottish Premiership, round 13 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Dundee United — Motherwell
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Dundee United are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 28%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- Dundee United are 108 points higher on Elo.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Dundee United higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Dundee United — No. 6, 16 pts; Motherwell — No. 9, 12 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Dundee United: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Dundee United 1 win, Motherwell 3, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Dundee United 10, Motherwell 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Dundee United — Motherwell What is xG? | 1.6–1.4 | |
| Dundee United not to lose | 71% | |
| Motherwell not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Dundee United
- Dundee United goals
- Motherwell goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Dundee United | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.48 | 1.60 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.44 | 1.67 |
| Shots | 15.7 | 15.2 |
| On target | 5.8 | 5.2 |
| Corners | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Cards | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 55 |
Form
- 28.10away · Celtic2:2
- 24.10Aberdeen3:2
- 17.10away · St. Johnstone1:1
- 10.10Hibernian1:0
- 19.09away · St. Mirren3:0
- 31.10St. Mirren1:0
- 28.10away · St. Johnstone2:2
- 25.10Heart of Midlothian0:2
- 17.10away · Kilmarnock2:3
- 11.10Celtic0:2
Head to head
- 02.09.2026Motherwell — Dundee United3:0
- 28.02.2026Motherwell — Dundee United2:0
- 13.12.2025Dundee United — Motherwell0:0
- 29.10.2025Motherwell — Dundee United2:0
- 22.02.2025Dundee United — Motherwell1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Championship round | Dundee FC | 11 | 5 | +4 | 17 |
| 6, Championship round | Dundee United | 11 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 7, Relegation round | St. Johnstone | 12 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 8, Relegation round | St. Mirren | 12 | 4 | -8 | 14 |
| 9, Relegation round | Motherwell | 12 | 3 | -6 | 12 |
| 10, Relegation round | Aberdeen | 11 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
Scottish Premiership on the same day
- 3827341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 3630341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 1120682The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →