La Liga, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Elche — Celta Vigo
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0:0Came true
In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (30%), came true.
Evenly matched: Elche 33%, Celta Vigo 37%, draw 30%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Celta Vigo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Elche — Celta Vigo What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Elche not to lose | 63% | |
| Celta Vigo not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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- Handicap Elche
- Elche goals
- Celta Vigo goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 18.09away · Espanyol3:1
- 15.09Real Madrid2:3
- 12.09away · Athletic Club1:1
- 07.09Real Sociedad2:3
- 28.08away · Racing Santander2:3
- 19.09Racing Santander5:0
- 16.09away · Omonia Nicosia0:1
- 13.09Málaga1:1
- 07.09away · Getafe1:1
- 03.09away · Real Sociedad0:0
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Celta Vigo — Elche3:1
- 28.09.2025Elche — Celta Vigo2:1
- 26.04.2023Celta Vigo — Elche1:0
- 06.01.2023Elche — Celta Vigo0:1
- 15.05.2022Celta Vigo — Elche1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruña | 8 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | -4 | 6 |
| 18, Relegation | Elche | 8 | 1 | -6 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | Valencia | 8 | 1 | -9 | 5 |
Next matches
- Celta VigoJuventus15 October · Europa League2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- VillarrealElche17 October · La Liga7218101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
La Liga on the same day
- 5626181The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
- 5627171The most likely outcome came true: 15:2Final score 5:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 3929321The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →