Turkish Super Lig, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Eyüpspor — Kocaelispor
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Kocaelispor are slightly stronger: 42% against 27%, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kocaelispor are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Kocaelispor are 69 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Eyüpspor — No. 18, 3 pts; Kocaelispor — No. 8, 16 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
- Last 2 meetings: Eyüpspor 0 wins, Kocaelispor 2.
- Days of rest before the match: Eyüpspor 3, Kocaelispor 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Eyüpspor — Kocaelispor What is xG? | 1.0–1.3 | |
| Eyüpspor not to lose | 58% | |
| Kocaelispor not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
Model vs market
The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Kocaelispor to win” at 42%, the market at 47%.
- Eyüpspor to winModel27%odds 3.70Market24%odds 4.13
- DrawModel31%odds 3.23Market29%odds 3.43
- Kocaelispor to winModel42%odds 2.38Market47%odds 2.15
- Total over 2.5Model43%odds 2.33Market44%odds 2.29
- Total under 2.5Model57%odds 1.75Market56%odds 1.77
- Both teams to score: yesModel50%odds 2.00Market49%odds 2.05
- Both teams to score: noModel50%odds 2.00Market51%odds 1.96
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- Eyüpspor goals
- Kocaelispor goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Eyüpspor | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| xG per match | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| Opponents’ xG | 2.29 | 1.33 |
| Shots | 11.5 | 12.9 |
| On target | 3.5 | 4.3 |
| Corners | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Cards | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Possession, % | 50 | 49 |
Form
- 04.11away · Fethiyespor4:2
- 01.11away · Amed Sportif1:5
- 24.10Kasımpaşa0:1
- 17.10away · Erzurumspor FK0:2
- 12.10Göztepe0:4
- 31.10Rizespor0:0
- 27.10Mazıdağı Fosfat Spor3:0
- 23.10away · Alanyaspor2:1
- 18.10Göztepe1:2
- 11.10away · Beşiktaş1:2
Head to head
- 09.03.2026Eyüpspor — Kocaelispor0:1
- 04.10.2025Kocaelispor — Eyüpspor1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Çorum FK | 10 | 5 | +5 | 16 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 10 | 5 | +2 | 16 |
| 9 | Göztepe | 10 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 17, Relegation | Samsunspor | 10 | 1 | -16 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | Eyüpspor | 10 | 1 | -25 | 3 |
Super Lig on the same day
- 4129311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 5226221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- 7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →