Turkish Super Lig, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Göztepe — Başakşehir
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Göztepe are clear favourites: 52% against 22% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Göztepe are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Göztepe are 82 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Göztepe — No. 9, 15 pts; Başakşehir — No. 10, 14 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Göztepe: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Göztepe 3 wins, Başakşehir 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Göztepe — Başakşehir What is xG? | 1.9–1.3 | |
| Göztepe not to lose | 78% | |
| Başakşehir not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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- Handicap Göztepe
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- Başakşehir goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Göztepe | Başakşehir |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xG per match | 1.93 | 1.75 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.70 | 1.57 |
| Shots | 15.7 | 13.2 |
| On target | 5.8 | 4.6 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| Cards | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 40 | 51 |
Form
- 31.10away · Fenerbahçe2:1
- 25.10Çorum FK2:0
- 18.10away · Kocaelispor2:1
- 12.10away · Eyüpspor4:0
- 20.09Rizespor2:2
- 01.11Samsunspor5:2
- 26.10away · Beşiktaş0:2
- 18.10Gaziantep FK2:1
- 11.10away · Konyaspor0:0
- 19.09Gençlerbirliği4:0
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Başakşehir — Göztepe2:1
- 05.10.2025Göztepe — Başakşehir1:0
- 28.04.2025Göztepe — Başakşehir4:1
- 30.11.2024Başakşehir — Göztepe4:1
- 22.01.2022Başakşehir — Göztepe1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 10 | 5 | +2 | 16 |
| 9 | Göztepe | 10 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 | Başakşehir | 10 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Erzurumspor FK | 10 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
Super Lig on the same day
- 2731422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.3
- 4129311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →