Scottish Premiership, round 10 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Falkirk — Kilmarnock

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Model prediction for 24 October

Falkirk53%
Draw24%
Kilmarnock22%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Falkirk are clear favourites: 53% against 22% for the opponent, draw 24%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 59%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Falkirk are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Falkirk — Kilmarnock What is xG?1.8–1.1
Falkirk not to lose78%
Kilmarnock not to lose47%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes59%
Both teams to score: no41%
Total over 2.557%
Total under 2.543%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Falkirk
  • Falkirk goals
  • Kilmarnock goals
  • Corners and cards
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Form

Falkirk

  • 10.10Dundee FC1:2
  • 19.09away · St. Johnstone1:1
  • 15.09Heart of Midlothian2:1
  • 05.09away · Dundee United1:1
  • 02.09Rangers1:2

Kilmarnock

  • 10.10away · Rangers1:3
  • 19.09Heart of Midlothian1:1
  • 15.09away · Hibernian1:0
  • 05.09away · Aberdeen0:0
  • 02.09St. Mirren0:1

Head to head

  • 28.02.2026Falkirk — Kilmarnock5:1
  • 20.12.2025Kilmarnock — Falkirk0:1
  • 01.11.2025Falkirk — Kilmarnock3:1

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
10, Relegation roundHibernian82158–12-47
11, Relegation roundFalkirk81347–11-46
12, Relegation roundKilmarnock81257–18-115

Season 2026/27

Full table

Scottish Premiership on the same day

  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →