Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 8 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Famalicão — Alverca
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Famalicão to win (46%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 46% fails in about 54 matches out of 100 on average.
Famalicão are clear favourites: 46% against 25% for the opponent, draw 30%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Famalicão are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Famalicão — Alverca What is xG? | 1.4–1.0 | |
| Famalicão not to lose | 75% | |
| Alverca not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Famalicão
- Famalicão goals
- Alverca goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · Nacional4:0
- 13.09Sporting CP1:1
- 05.09away · Estrela da Amadora2:2
- 30.08Gil Vicente0:0
- 23.08away · Santa Clara0:1
- 19.09Rio Ave1:0
- 12.09away · Nacional3:1
- 05.09Braga1:2
- 29.08Santa Clara1:1
- 22.08away · Sporting CP1:3
Head to head
- 16.05.2026Famalicão — Alverca1:0
- 04.01.2026Alverca — Famalicão1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Académico Viseu | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | -9 | 7 |
Next matches
- TondelaAlverca18 October · Taca de Portugal2626482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- ParedesFamalicão18 October · Taca de Portugal815772The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →