Turkish Cup, round 3 · Wednesday, 28 October, (UTC+3) · Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu
Fatih Karagümrük — Soma Spor Dernegi
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Fatih Karagümrük to win (76%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 76% fails in about 24 matches out of 100 on average.
Fatih Karagümrük are clear favourites: 76% against 8% for the opponent, draw 16%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Fatih Karagümrük are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Fatih Karagümrük are 428 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fatih Karagümrük — Soma Spor Dernegi What is xG? | 2.5–0.7 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük not to lose | 92% | |
| Soma Spor Dernegi not to lose | 24% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fatih Karagümrük
- Fatih Karagümrük goals
- Soma Spor Dernegi goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 16.05Alanyaspor2:1
- 09.05away · Kocaelispor1:0
- 03.05Gençlerbirliği1:0
- 27.04away · Beşiktaş0:0
- 18.04Eyüpspor1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Turkish Cup on the same day
- 2024572The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.2.9
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 4027331The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 3527392The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3427392The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- AnkarasporKırklarelisporfinal 3:2 (90 min 2:2)6023181The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:0.2.9
- 3727361The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →