Liga MX (Mexico), round 17 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
FC Juárez — Atlas
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Atlas are slightly stronger: 44% against 29%, draw 27%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Atlas are 59 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: FC Juárez — No. 18, 8 pts; Atlas — No. 4, 27 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Juárez 1 win, Atlas 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Juárez — Atlas What is xG? | 1.3–1.6 | |
| FC Juárez not to lose | 56% | |
| Atlas not to lose | 71% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Juárez
- FC Juárez goals
- Atlas goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | FC Juárez | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| xG per match | 1.21 | 1.58 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.90 | 1.77 |
| Shots | 11.6 | 14.9 |
| On target | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 6.9 |
| Cards | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| Possession, % | 48 | 54 |
Form
- 31.10Querétaro3:1
- 24.10away · Necaxa1:1
- 21.10Atlante0:1
- 18.10away · Cruz Azul0:5
- 11.10Tijuana1:1
- 31.10away · Atlético de San Luis1:0
- 26.10Puebla4:3
- 22.10América2:5
- 17.10away · Necaxa2:0
- 11.10Chivas1:1
Head to head
- 28.02.2026FC Juárez — Atlas3:1
- 04.10.2025Atlas — FC Juárez3:1
- 06.04.2025Atlas — FC Juárez1:1
- 06.07.2024FC Juárez — Atlas2:2
- 29.01.2024Atlas — FC Juárez2:1
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- PueblaAtlético de San Luispreliminary3230382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- TijuanaAtlantepreliminary3929311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →