Liga MX (Mexico), round 17 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Puebla — Atlético de San Luis
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Puebla 32%, Atlético de San Luis 38%, draw 30%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético de San Luis are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Puebla — No. 14, 16 pts; Atlético de San Luis — No. 13, 19 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Puebla: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Puebla 1 win, Atlético de San Luis 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Puebla — Atlético de San Luis What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Puebla not to lose | 62% | |
| Atlético de San Luis not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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- All totals
- Handicap Puebla
- Puebla goals
- Atlético de San Luis goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Puebla | Atlético de San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 0.78 | 1.34 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.60 | 1.35 |
| Shots | 13.8 | 12.9 |
| On target | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| Corners | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| Cards | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 53 |
Form
- 31.10Atlas0:1
- 24.10away · Atlante1:0
- 21.10Querétaro2:1
- 18.10away · Toluca1:1
- 12.10Santos Laguna1:2
Head to head
- 01.03.2026Atlético de San Luis — Puebla0:1
- 16.08.2025Puebla — Atlético de San Luis0:2
- 18.01.2025Puebla — Atlético de San Luis1:2
- 03.11.2024Atlético de San Luis — Puebla2:0
- 02.03.2024Atlético de San Luis — Puebla4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pachuca | 15 | 5 | +6 | 19 |
| 13 | Atlético de San Luis | 15 | 5 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 | Puebla | 15 | 4 | -6 | 16 |
| 15 | Tigres | 15 | 3 | -7 | 15 |
Liga MX on the same day
- FC JuárezAtlaspreliminary2927442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- TijuanaAtlantepreliminary3929311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →