Liga MX (Mexico), round 17 · Saturday, 21 November, 06:00 (UTC+3)

Tijuana — Atlante

Model prediction for 21 November

Tijuana39%

Draw29%

Atlante31%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Tijuana are slightly stronger: 39% against 31%, draw 29%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Tijuana are 192 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Tijuana — No. 6, 22 pts; Atlante — No. 16, 14 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
Tijuana: unbeaten in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Tijuana — Atlante What is xG?		1.6–1.4
Tijuana not to lose		69%
Atlante not to lose		61%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		62%
Both teams to score: no		38%
Total over 2.5		56%
Total under 2.5		44%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Tijuana
Tijuana goals
Atlante goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Tijuana	Atlante
Goals scored per match	1.7	1.1
Goals conceded per match	1.4	1.7
xG per match	1.72	1.47
Opponents’ xG	1.50	1.12
Shots	12.5	16.4
On target	4.2	5.3
Corners	5.1	6.0
Cards	2.1	2.2
Possession, %	42	46

Averages per match: Tijuana — the last 10, Atlante — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Tijuana

01.11away · Monterrey3:3
29.10away · América1:1
26.10Santos Laguna4:1
22.10away · Toluca2:2
17.10Puebla0:0

Atlante

01.11away · Chivas2:4
24.10Atlético de San Luis0:1
21.10away · FC Juárez1:0
17.10Pumas1:2
11.10away · Querétaro0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026 (Apertura)
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
5, Liguilla (playoffs)	Toluca	15	6	6	3	31–21	+10	24
6, Liguilla (playoffs)	Tijuana	15	5	7	3	25–21	+4	22
7, Liguilla (playoffs)	León	15	6	4	5	22–20	+2	22
15	Tigres	15	3	6	6	15–22	-7	15
16	Atlante	15	3	5	7	16–24	-8	14
17	Necaxa	15	2	4	9	16–28	-12	10

Season 2026 (Apertura)

Full table

Liga MX on the same day

04:00
PueblaAtlético de San Luispreliminary
323038
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
06:00
FC JuárezAtlaspreliminary
292744
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →