UEFA Conference League, round 3 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
FC Midtjylland — Ajax
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: FC Midtjylland 39%, Ajax 35%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- Ajax's starting XI is worth €99m, FC Midtjylland's €32m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: FC Midtjylland — No. 16, 1 pt; Ajax — No. 25, 0 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- FC Midtjylland: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Midtjylland — Ajax What is xG? | 1.5–1.4 | |
| FC Midtjylland not to lose | 65% | |
| Ajax not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Midtjylland
- FC Midtjylland goals
- Ajax goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 15.10away · Egnatia1:1
- 11.10FC København2:1
- 19.09away · OB1:1
- 14.09Brøndby IF4:1
- 07.09Nordsjælland2:2
- 15.10away · Hajduk Split1:2
- 10.10NEC Nijmegen1:1
- 19.09Excelsior2:2
- 15.09Willem II5:1
- 12.09away · Fortuna Sittard5:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Nordsjælland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Jablonec | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Ajax | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Conference League on the same day
- AtalantaKairat Almatypreliminary801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- FK Crvena ZvezdaInter Club d'Escaldespreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KuPSGentpreliminary2023562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Lincoln Red Imps FCHajduk Splitpreliminary3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- TrabzonsporFreiburgpreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- AGFBragapreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- ThunHeart of Midlothianpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- MjällbyBorac Banja Lukapreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →