UEFA Conference League, round 3 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
FC Twente — Pafos FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Twente are clear favourites: 69% against 12% for the opponent, draw 19%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- FC Twente's starting XI is worth €47m, Pafos FC's €9m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings FC Twente are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: FC Twente — No. 14, 3 pts; Pafos FC — No. 32, 0 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- FC Twente: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Twente — Pafos FC What is xG? | 2.3–0.9 | |
| FC Twente not to lose | 88% | |
| Pafos FC not to lose | 31% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Twente
- FC Twente goals
- Pafos FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10Thun1:0
- 10.10away · Fortuna Sittard1:1
- 20.09PSV Eindhoven3:2
- 12.09ADO Den Haag2:0
- 09.09Telstar1:0
- 15.10away · Atalanta1:3
- 28.01Slavia Prague4:1
- 21.01away · Chelsea0:1
- 10.12away · Juventus0:2
- 26.11Monaco2:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Gent | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | FC Twente | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 31 | KuPS | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Pafos FC | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Iberia 1999 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
Conference League on the same day
- AtalantaKairat Almatypreliminary801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- FC MidtjyllandAjaxpreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaInter Club d'Escaldespreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KuPSGentpreliminary2023562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Lincoln Red Imps FCHajduk Splitpreliminary3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- TrabzonsporFreiburgpreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- AGFBragapreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- ThunHeart of Midlothianpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →