UEFA Champions League, round 4 · Wednesday, 4 November, 20:45 (UTC+3)

Fenerbahçe — Liverpool

Model prediction for 4 November

Fenerbahçe33%

Draw26%

Liverpool41%

Model estimate at 01:01 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Liverpool are slightly stronger: 41% against 33%, draw 26%.

The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

Liverpool's starting XI is worth €469m, Fenerbahçe's €146m (Transfermarkt).
By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

League table: Fenerbahçe — No. 28, 1 pt; Liverpool — No. 5, 6 pts. A gap of 5 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Fenerbahçe — Liverpool What is xG?		1.3–1.5
Fenerbahçe not to lose		59%
Liverpool not to lose		67%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		54%
Total under 2.5		46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe goals
Liverpool goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Fenerbahçe

14.10away · Aston Villa0:6
10.10away · Rizespor3:0
20.09Eyüpspor8:0
14.09away · Gaziantep FK0:0
10.09Roma1:1

Liverpool

14.10away · LASK6:3
11.10Manchester City0:3
20.09away · AFC Bournemouth1:0
15.09Tottenham Hotspur3:1
12.09Fulham0:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Straight to the round of 16	VfB Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	6–1	+5	6
5, Straight to the round of 16	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	8–4	+4	6
6, Straight to the round of 16	Sporting CP	2	2	0	0	5–1	+4	6
27	Viking	2	0	1	1	4–6	-2	1
28	Fenerbahçe	2	0	1	1	1–7	-6	1
29	Inter	2	0	0	2	4–6	-2	0

Season 2026/27

Full table

Champions League on the same day

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1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
23:00
RB LeipzigManchester Citypreliminary
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2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
23:00
Slavia PragueArsenalpreliminary
91675
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.3
23:00
LensComopreliminary
332641
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
23:00
VikingSabah FKpreliminary
701812
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →