Russian Premier League, round 12 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
FK Akhmat — FC Orenburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FK Akhmat are clear favourites: 49% against 20% for the opponent, draw 31%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FK Akhmat are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: FK Akhmat — No. 11, 11 pts; FC Orenburg — No. 7, 12 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: FK Akhmat 2 wins, FC Orenburg 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FK Akhmat — FC Orenburg What is xG? | 1.4–0.9 | |
| FK Akhmat not to lose | 80% | |
| FC Orenburg not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FK Akhmat
- FK Akhmat goals
- FC Orenburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Baltika0:0
- 17.09away · Akron Togliatti0:2
- 13.09Dynamo Makhachkala3:2
- 07.09away · Rubin Kazan1:1
- 03.09away · Dinamo Moscow0:3
- 10.10Dynamo Makhachkala4:0
- 17.09FC Krasnodar0:0
- 12.09away · Dinamo Moscow0:1
- 06.09Akron Togliatti2:2
- 02.09Rubin Kazan1:1
Head to head
- 05.12.2025FK Akhmat — FC Orenburg1:0
- 30.09.2025FK Akhmat — FC Orenburg0:1
- 22.08.2025FC Orenburg — FK Akhmat2:2
- 13.08.2025FC Orenburg — FK Akhmat2:1
- 08.12.2024FK Akhmat — FC Orenburg1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 10 | 2 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 10 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 10 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | FK Akhmat | 10 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 10 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →